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Post by montrose on Mar 26, 2011 20:43:08 GMT -6
1. Purpose. Start a new thread to discuss low probability theories.
2. Background. Fred and I have been engaged in a long term discussion of low probability theories. On his recommendation I will try to introduce these discussions to the forums.
3. Discussion. In my opinion, some of these theories do not pass the null hypothesis test. Others are so circumstancial as to be unprovable. But for the purpose of developing a forum conversation, I will try to frame all arguments in a reasonable manner.
Examples of topics:
- The Benteen was ordered to reinforce Reno theory - Custer blocked by massive Indian force at Ford B - The Battle of Ford B - C CO horse circle on LSH was horse holder group - Bouyer was a stay behind observation post - Gerard knoll cleft argument - The Lethal Pause
I have no intention of discussing individual testimonies or personalities here. Those have been beaten to death elsewhere.
I will use a point paper format to start a discussion. You may notice I use information papers and point paper formats a lot. I will outline the theory, talking points on facts and assumptions, and a discussion related to viability.
To save time to outline a theory, I will not argue "pre-theories". For example, some of my discussions will involve Custer on LSH. I am following the Ford D excursion. Some folks do not believe he ever went to Ford D, and various variations of the defeat and retread from B theory. This can sidetrack the topic of that paper.
If a discussion gets sidetracked into a pre-theory, I will write a new paper to focus on that argument.
I will write the first paper tomorrow. I believe I will start with Ford B.
Respectfully,
WIlliam
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Post by fred on Mar 26, 2011 21:31:44 GMT -6
Will,
This is really good stuff; I look forward to it.
Best wishes, Fred.
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Post by montrose on Mar 27, 2011 6:28:18 GMT -6
1. Purpose. Discuss the theory that Custer was blocked at Ford B by vastly superior enemy forces.
2. Theory context. At 3411 Custer got his first view of the village and the valley fight. According to Kanipe and Martini, the village had no organized defense and the Indians appeared to be fleeing. The Indian combat forces were upstream fighting Reno. The village was exposed.
By the time Custer arrived at the river, the situation had changed. A large hostile force occupied the village in strength. Custer abandoned any thought of an attack at Ford B and moved back to Calhoun Hill.
3. Discussion. This theory is dependent on a time gap from 3411 to Ford B. Indians who were fighting Reno had to beat him, drive him to the crossing site, and return to the village; all before Custer could move down Cedar and Medicine Trail coulees.
4. Where did all those Indians come from? The famous answer to the bar joke about Custer's last words is applicable here. There were Indians west of the village getting ponies, and several Indians say they were still in the village when Custer was seen to the east.
a. It is far more likely that the first Indians to react to the eastern threat were these uncommitted Indians, followed by a large group of Indians who were moving up the valley to reinforce the Reno fight, but were not yet engaged.
b. This also means that Custer fundamentally did not understand what he saw from 3411. It is kind of hard to miss 10,000 ponies, etc. I assume he saw the abandoned Sans Arc lodges immediately below the bluffs and assumed the same existed in the lodges near ford B and further downstream.
5. Custer dawdles. If Custer saw an opportunity at Ford B, the logical thing to do is attack immediately to take advantage of this opportunity. Custer's ACW career is full of examples that Custer understood mass and dash.
Instead he places three companies on N/C ridge. He approaches the river with only two companies. According to Thompson, he conducted a leader's reconnaissance, while his forces were parked, waiting for him.
Custer's actions are inexplicable if he faced a large enemy force at the fords. Custer's actions show that he believed he had time, and that he faced no threat in the Ford B area.
6. Keough sector. Keough deployed Calhoun's company as his main effort facing south, his own company several hundred yards away in reserve. C Company may been in reserve or deployed on Calhoun's flank. There is extensive archeology evidence showing a sustained fight by Calhoun, but little or nothing showing a C Co line on his flank. The evidence for C Co in combat is after their abortive attack.
a. Facing. Keough's position is facing south. If there was a massive enemy force at B, he is facing the wrong way.
b. Keough kept himself and his company far away on the east side of the ridge. He was too far back to see or respond to a large body of Indians coming from B. This clearly implies that there was no threat from B when he deployed his forces.
7. LSH. One of the problems with this theory is finding a way to get Custer and the Yates Bn at the north end of the ridge. The enemy is to the west. So you deploy one Bn facing south, and take the other north, far out of support range. For the moment, I can think of no way to Custer to LSH within this theory, unless he is a coward and a tactical fool.
8. Tactical ability. The theory rests primarily in the tactical inability of Custer and Keough. They failed to see a large body of hostiles to their immediate front. They maneuvered their forces in widely scattered pieces, with their main effort facing away from the enemy.
This is completely out of line with the previous records of both men.
9. Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. OK, let us borrow a theory from quantum physics. We can not know with certainty the size and activity of Indians at ford B. But we do have some knowledge of Custer and his two battalions. Custer and his forces activities are responding to a low threat environment from Ford B. The behaviour of US forces is itself the greatest counterargument against this theory.
Respectfully,
William
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Post by montrose on Mar 27, 2011 6:59:28 GMT -6
Fred,
First paper posted. Will take a break and start second one later.
William
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Post by fred on Mar 27, 2011 8:46:08 GMT -6
Will,
As always, great job. I will get to it later today [hopefully!... I have a LBH lecture to prepare for and two articles to edit, so as usual, I am swamped]. At a cursory glance, it looks great and hopefully we will have something decent to discuss without the usual diversions.
Talk to you soon.
Best wishes, Fred.
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Post by tubman13 on May 25, 2015 7:19:23 GMT -6
Not Lethal Pause, but interesting, nonetheless.
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jaguar
Junior Member
Posts: 74
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Post by jaguar on May 27, 2015 12:23:20 GMT -6
Let me try and resurrect this post with a question. What if Custer was shot and disabled at the Ford. Would this answer some of the questions about strategy you pose and examine? White Cow Bull tells that a soldier riding a sorrel horse with... four white stockings who was wearing a buckskin jacket (Custer is said to have taken it off but may have put it back on) was shot across the Ford and fell off his horse into the water after which he was immediately attended to by a number of soldiers. Wouldn't his incapacity explain a lot about abandoning his plans?
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Post by quincannon on May 27, 2015 12:55:37 GMT -6
When you explain to us how this man was found on LSH with two wounds each of which was either immediately fatal or would be within minutes, most of us might then listen to WCB, with or sans buckskin jacket, white stocking horse and the attendance of a number of soldiers at Ford B. You must also justify the dragging of a dead man several miles just because.
While you are at it you must also explain how you or anyone else knows that Custer was at Ford B, in person, within reasonable rifle range. Not soldiers mind you, because Company E's presence is fairly well established, but Custer the man.
Have at it.
Do not let the fact that you share the same birthday with my late and very unlamented ex wife give you a case of the timids when you present your answer.
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Post by Colt45 on May 27, 2015 13:10:47 GMT -6
Let me try and resurrect this post with a question. What if Custer was shot and disabled at the Ford. Would this answer some of the questions about strategy you pose and examine? White Cow Bull tells that a soldier riding a sorrel horse with... four white stockings who was wearing a buckskin jacket (Custer is said to have taken it off but may have put it back on) was shot across the Ford and fell off his horse into the water after which he was immediately attended to by a number of soldiers. Wouldn't his incapacity explain a lot about abandoning his plans? I think it more likely that Custer was wounded in the area around ford D, if he was wounded somewhere other than LSH or Cemetery Ridge, than at Ford B. WCB's story has no corroborating accounts to help verify his tale, and a whole lot more circumstantial evidence to refute Custer being wounded at Ford B. The severity of the chest wound being of note. It was either instantly fatal or within minutes would have been fatal. Not likely they would drag his body around and up to Calhoun Hill, then around Battle Ridge and down to Ford D, then ultimately back to LSH. Just wouldn't make sense. And if he had been hit at Ford B, why on earth would the remaining officers continue on as they did? They would surely have realized that trying to keep moving north was a sure loser. Only a live Custer would have wanted that crazy plan to continue.
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Post by tubman13 on May 27, 2015 13:26:10 GMT -6
Let me try and resurrect this post with a question. What if Custer was shot and disabled at the Ford. Would this answer some of the questions about strategy you pose and examine? White Cow Bull tells that a soldier riding a sorrel horse with... four white stockings who was wearing a buckskin jacket (Custer is said to have taken it off but may have put it back on) was shot across the Ford and fell off his horse into the water after which he was immediately attended to by a number of soldiers. Wouldn't his incapacity explain a lot about abandoning his plans? An interesting thought, you are not alone in wondering. Depending upon the ford you are wondering about, the answers could be different. Therew ere a number of officers with buckskin on that day. I think that if Custer was wounded at Ford B, maybe the command would have moved back south to rejoin the remainder of the regiment. Thanks for attempting to resurrect the thread.
Regards, Tom
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Post by Yan Taylor on May 27, 2015 13:30:28 GMT -6
If Custer was hit at ford B then I would think that the two battalions would unite on Calhoun hill or even the N/L/C ridges and then move back south, as I don't think there was enough Indian clout in position at the ford to chase them and cause such disarray.
Welcome Jaguar, or may I call you Jag.
Ian.
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Post by Beth on May 27, 2015 13:30:43 GMT -6
Let me try and resurrect this post with a question. What if Custer was shot and disabled at the Ford. Would this answer some of the questions about strategy you pose and examine? White Cow Bull tells that a soldier riding a sorrel horse with... four white stockings who was wearing a buckskin jacket (Custer is said to have taken it off but may have put it back on) was shot across the Ford and fell off his horse into the water after which he was immediately attended to by a number of soldiers. Wouldn't his incapacity explain a lot about abandoning his plans? Welcome to the board. I hope we see you around more often. It is unlikely that the was Custer who was shot at the ford. A number of people were wearing buckskin that day though considering it was a very hot day the chances of someone wearing a jacket is unlikely. I wonder if instead what White Cow Bell saw was a Also Custer rode a horse named Victory that day, photos clearly show he has only 3 white socks. Also as QC points out, Custer was found on Last Stand Hill reportedly with only two wounds, either of which would be fatal. Even as much as Custer was admired by his closest friends at BLBH, it would not make sense to cart around a body of a fallen compatriot in the middle of a battle. I believe that the question about who is the soldier shot at Ford B is still an unanswered question. I sometimes wonder if it might have been a scout wearing a white shirt. Beth
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Post by quincannon on May 27, 2015 13:31:58 GMT -6
I would agree with you Colt, there is a much greater chance that Custer was wounded at Ford D or thereabouts than Ford B. I don't think he was wounded there either for reasons that we have discussed on the critical whatshisname thread.
The movement from B to D and then back somewhat, the deployment off Cemetery which occupied our time yesterday, was all pure Custer. The but for is without Custer those things would not have played out.
Jaguar, you're new, and probably do not realize this WCB-Custer wounded at B story has been discussed here until the legs fell off of it. That's not your fault, and your question is not unlike those often presented by the new guy, and for sufficiency of reason - you want an answer or at least an opinion. Keep this in mind, everyone was Custer to the hostiles in their tale telling. The 7th Cavalry was Custer. All leaders from Corporal to LTC were Custer. The truth is they would not know Custer from your crazy Uncle Harry, and did not probably even know it was Custer until they were later told.
If there is a trick to what we do here it is flow and context. My good friend from Tejas, Colt, has given you both with his post above. A general rule in flow and context is -- If it does not fit you must omit.
Otherwise welcome, and I will not hold 22 November agin ya.
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Post by Beth on May 27, 2015 13:35:33 GMT -6
I would agree with you Colt, there is a much greater chance that Custer was wounded at Ford D or thereabouts than Ford B. I don't think he was wounded there either for reasons that we have discussed on the critical whatshisname thread. The movement from B to D and then back somewhat, the deployment off Cemetery which occupied our time yesterday, was all pure Custer. The but for is without Custer those things would not have played out. Jaguar, your new, and probably do not realize this WCB-Custer wounded at B story has been discussed here until the legs fell off of it. That's not your fault, and your question is not unlike those often presented by the new guy, and for sufficiency of reason - you want an answer or at least an opinion. Keep this in mind, everyone was Custer to the hostiles in their tale telling. The 7th Cavalry was Custer. All leaders from Corporal to LTC were Custer. The truth is they would not know Custer from your crazy Uncle Harry, and did not probably even know it was Custer until they were later told. If there is a trick to what we do here it is flow and context. My good friend from Tejas, Colt, has given you both with his post above. A general rule in flow and context is -- If it does not fit you must omit. Otherwise welcome, and I will not hold 22 November agin ya. Do you think that part of the reason none of the NA knew Custer was because he didn't have his trademark long golden locks that day? I do agree that it seems that none of the NA knew they were fighting Custer's troops that day, but once they did learn it everyone saw Custer everywhere on that battlefield. Beth
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Post by quincannon on May 27, 2015 13:51:54 GMT -6
Beth: Maybe it was the trademark or absence thereof, but the most likely reason was that they would not know Custer if they fell over him. There was none of them invited to tea in his parlor at Fort Lincoln. None of these guys were attired like you see in a Currier and Ives period print. Their clothes were dirty and trail worn, supplemented heavily, with more durable civilian wear, if that could be afforded. Those leaders that wore marks of rank in combat qualify for the Ding Dong of the year award. Look at that scruffy bunch atop Weir Point in the painting that Ian has posted several times here. If Custer wore anything that would mark him as an easily identifiable leader at a distance of one hundred meters and beyond I would be shocked.
I don't recall but is there anything in the WCB story indicating that goofy blue and red divisional guidon was present in this story of his? That was like a red neon sign, saying shoot me.
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